When Will Johan Start Killing People?
Johan Santana is great. The Mets, though, really seem to hate him. He's always had run support issues,* but since moving from Minnesota to New York, it's basically become an absurd comedy.
* From 2004-2007, his time (as a starter) with the Twins, Santana ranked 1st in innings pitched, 1st in strikeouts, 1st in walks, 1st in ERA, 1st in wins, 1st in winning percentage ... and 50th in run support.
Here are some of Johan's starts from 2008 that probably should have been wins:
Loss: 7 innings, 1 earned run.
ND: 6 innings, 1 earned run
Loss: 7 innings, 3 earned runs
Loss: 6 innings, 1 earned run
ND: 7 innings, 0 earned runs
Loss: 7 innings, 1 earned run
ND: 8 innings, 2 earned runs
ND: 8 innings, 2 earned runs
ND: 6 1/3 innings, 1 earned run
ND: 7 innings, 2 earned runs
ND: 7 innings, 2 earned runs
Even with all that, he managed to go 16-7. If the offense had scored its average amount of runs in those games, and/or the bullpen hadn't blown the lead after Santana left the game, his record very well could have been 27-3. Are you kidding me? The gap between 16-7 and 27-3 seems (and is) huge ... but there's really nothing Santana could have done to get those extra wins; he did everything possible, and pitched well enough. His team just didn't Johan-up.
To his credit, Santana has never complained about this (since leaving Minnesota, where he did start to complain close to the end of his tenure -- I think he was just annoyed, or something). Calcaterra, take it away:
Despite the fact that Johan Santana has been repeatedly boned by his bullpen over the past couple of years, he still manages to keep his composure. Total pro. But no one can keep it locked in forever, and one day, 15 or 20 years from now, some writer is going to make an argument that Santana is not Hall of Fame worthy because his win totals weren't good enough, and that's when Johan will start killing folks.
Great writing like that is why I wake up and turn on the internet every morning.
But he brings up a good point. In 15 or 20 years, the question of Johan-for-Hall will start to become relevant. Writers famously look at total wins (and nothing else), rather than ERA+ (which Santana is great at), or win percentage (where Santana is third best all time and would be first if the Mets weren't blowing all his leads).
Can you imagine if he comes a little short on the total-wins list? This is the best pitcher of his era. He racks up strikeouts, minimizes walks, and epitomizes the "big game pitcher" that nobody wants to face. He makes the best hitters in baseball flail like they've never seen a pitch before, and he does it to them on three straight pitches until they go sit down and think about what they did. He is great.
And if they make him wait to get into the Hall based on his win-count, I have the distinct feeling that he'll eventually have a Blyleven-esque explosion.
